Magnus van Haaren

Research

Working papers and conference contributions.

Working papers

What the Vote Leaves Behind: Preference-Outcome Histories and Later Direct Ballots

Magnus van Haaren, Helge Klapper, Daan Stam

Collective decisions create a shared outcome but different histories for the members who voted. We ask how accumulated mismatch between members’ preferences and collective outcomes relates to later participation. The theoretical argument concerns outcome-based efficacy: whether further voice seems capable of advancing preferred outcomes. Longitudinal Snapshot voting records show a negative pooled association between accumulated misalignment and later recorded ballots, with much of the association concentrated in 2023 voting windows containing other same-DAO proposal closures. The archive does not measure efficacy beliefs or establish causal withdrawal. Uncertainty about follow-up completeness and variation across windows limit how broadly the association can be interpreted.

Work in progressLongitudinal analysis · DAOs

Time-Symmetric Authority: Anticipated Evaluation, Power, and Collective Search

Magnus van Haaren, Daan A. Stam

Who gets heard while a group is still searching for a course of action? We treat anticipated evaluation as a source of present authority, alongside evidence of past usefulness. An agent-based model compares that rule with equal influence, competence-based authority, and alternative uses of prospective information. The simulations show how expected standards can redirect collective search and affect who keeps contributing. They do not establish a general performance advantage. Under the modeled participation assumptions, shared standard setting buffers some participation losses without eliminating them. The model isolates consequences of an assumed authority rule; it does not establish that people grant authority this way.

Working paperAgent-based simulation

Algorithmic Allies: Decentralized Autonomous Agents in the Era of Grand Challenges

Magnus van Haaren, Murat Tarakci

How can organizations coordinate across boundaries when societal problems exceed any one organization’s reach? We develop a conceptual account of decentralized autonomous agents that combine AI-driven autonomy with blockchain-based decentralization. The central idea is code-based authority: decision rights become embedded in auditable protocols, reshaping agenda setting, problem representation, search, and evaluation. We explain how this arrangement could reduce overload, fragmentation, opacity, and bias, subject to technical constraints and human oversight. The argument also considers displacement, concentrated power, and environmental costs. Its proposed benefits remain to be tested; autonomous execution does not eliminate the need to govern how decisions are made.

Working paperConceptual research

Conference contributions